(TBA News) – News is reporting about a catastrophic threat to Egypt if Egypt does not submit to the powers to be. Reports are talking about up to 10 Million Egyptians being killed if Israel destroys The High Dam, leading to the flooding of Cairo and the total collapse of Egyptian society. Will it?

Unlike other threats made, this one can be assessed quite well by running a few numbers and looking at a map. The following analysis can only be considered a very rudimentary approach to the issue but one that teaches us a lot.

The High Dam is 900 kilometers south of Cairo in Upper Egypt. Lake Nasser has a full capacity of 132 billion cubic meters (BCM). Of that, up to 90 BCM are usable water storage. The remaining volume is considered dead storage below the lowest outlet. This means that in the case of a complete destruction of the dam, only up to 68% of the lake’s water would poor into the Nile northward.

The geography between Cairo and The High Dam can be divided into three regions: Lower Egypt, Middle Egypt, and Upper Egypt. Lower Egypt extends over about 250 kilometers from Cairo to Beni Suef, Middle Egypt over 300 kilometers from Beni Suef to Qena, and Upper Egypt over about 350 kilometers from Qena to Aswan. In each region, the average width and depth of the Nile are different. In Lower Egypt, it is 25 to 30 kilometers at 8 to 15 meters depth. In Middle Egypt, it is 10 to 14 kilometers at 10 to 20 meters depth, and in Upper Egypt, it is 5 to 7 kilometers wide at 15 to 25 meters depth.

During the high water season, the water level in Lower Egypt and Middle Egypt is about 5 meters higher than normal. In Upper Egypt, the water level during the high water season is up to 10 meters higher than normal.

What does all that mean in a static scenario and a dynamic scenario?

1. In the static scenario, the destruction of The High Dam will only raise the water level of the Nile by about five meters, which matches the water level increase from normal levels to seasonal high levels. Consequently, the up to 90 billion cubic meters from Lake Nasser, the volume of the usable water itself, would not present an unusual and unmanageable increase of the Nile water. Meaning, nothing happens to anyone.
2. In the dynamic scenario, we are looking at the flood wave caused by the destruction of The High Dam. Looking at a map, we cannot help but notice that the Nile takes ninety-degree turns in Kom Umbu and Qena. It is hard to imagine that a flood wave at high speeds will just follow the path of the Nile during those turns. It is more likely that Kom Umbu will face most of the flooding and the remaining kinetic energy of the flood wave will probably be absorbed in the Qena area. This means it is very unlikely that Lower Egypt and Middle Egypt will be substantially affected by the flood wave, and if some irrelevant remainder of the flood wave works its way up to Cairo, it will take days to get there. Upper Egypt will face nearly all of the energy of the flood wave and its destructive power.

In consequence, the pessimistic scenarios of 1 to 10 million dead Egyptians and the complete destruction of Egyptian society fall into the realm of fantasy, science fiction, and psy-ops.

Assuming that the total collapse of the dam has been modeled before its construction and water flow mitigation pathways and plans have been designed accordingly, the destruction in Upper Egypt should be limited in scope, assuming also that the population has been trained in emergency response behavior, such as following pre-defined escape routes.